Two things I can't tell from the pics.
The stays look look carbon or is it a paint effect. If carbon then that could be a game changer.
Subject to the answer to Q1. If you look along the full length of the stays, what happens at the brake bridge, is there a bend? If not then it could be more likely that the dropout is bent though forged dropouts are pretty beefy.
PS edited to say that you have my sympathy. I know how I'd feel if it was me in your situation