Playing the long game

[legrandefromage]

Its not the monetary value but more theuniqueness of what you may or may not decide to stash for a while...

My own stash has all but depleted anyway with carboot sales tips and auctions empty of even halfway decent rides.

My garage is mostly full of hifi these days anyway.

 

[thecannibal]

The thing is, most of the late '80s/early '90s MTB stuff that costs a bomb on ebay now also cost vast amounts at the time. There was a period from the late '90s to mid '00s when things were relatively affordable thanks to the sport maturing and high quality mass production putting a decent new bike within many people's grasp, but now prices have rocketed again (£440 for an xtr chainset anyone?).

What I'm getting at is that while top end stuff eventually comes around as desirable and 'vintage' (rather than just 'old') and so prices shoot up, it rarely sells for more than the original price in real terms. There are some exceptions, but you'd mostly be better off with your money sat in a bank than invested in brand new 'future retro' bike tat. Only when you can buy 'old' and sell 'vintage' do you actually stand to make money.

 

[lewis1641]

i am becoming a bit more selective in what i buy and how i build, tending now to err towards a factory spec. doesnt always work but i think in years to come a factory spec trek 9000 in good shape will start some conversation

i am also trying not to sell anything that is in good condition.

 

[Groundoggy]

NOS Mavic rims. You can still get them at reasonable prices from time to time.

Ringle hubs. Any decent hub really.

Scott Matthauser Superbrakes.

Agree XTR prices are crazy. I can't justify those prices for my builds. XT is relatively affordable still so for the price that group represents a bit of value IMO.

 

[hamster]

In 10 years time, kids today might care about old MTBs...or they may want an original iPhone 3GS...or some other weird thing you cannot anticipate.

Retro windsurfers anyone? There doesn't seem a market for them. Fashion is hard to predict.

I'll just carry on enjoying riding. M900 was expensive BITD and still relatively hopeless compared to other investments over 20 years.

 

[dbmtb]

I still firmly believe that retro mtbs will be the next craze for whatever you call fashionistas when the term hipster is no longer in use in 5 years or so.

I even got messaged over facebook by a former workmate who has now decided that skinwall tyres are cool after all. Prepare for the deluge!

 

[Groundoggy]

OK I'm convinced. My retirement plan is going to consist of a garage full of Panaracer Smoke's.

Seriously though this is likely just a collector's peak. Those of us who rode these bikes are now mostly middle aged. Maybe the kids have grown up, maybe you bailed on the hobby a few years ago and now have a 'mid life retro crisis'. We have a little disposable cash now and we fondly remember these bikes and parts from our perceived glory days of the sport.

Pulling out some cool minty piece in a decade is going to be an eye opener for those still around. No denying the rarity will spike in coming years. I'll mostly ride what I buy. I doubt any attempt at an 'investment' will trump the enjoyment I get out of it if I'm able to enjoy it for a decade.

 

[Woz]

Serious answer now, my predictions are:

- what we know has retro now will not be elusive to the new generation, perhaps the few that are seeking vintage but will have no experience of the quality or experience in the real world, they will be driven on documented myths from the internet.
- Garage queens will gain value for a very limited market only. Fashion may play a part in X years from now. Personally, I'm more interested in solid riders so I'm out of that game.
- Low value MTB stuff will go in the bin. Compare this to the fixie trend, there is no market for the heaps of low value road tat from the 80s - it must be Campag or Dura-Ace or Mavic or Modolo exotica.
- short travel suspension forks (< 63mm) will dry up rendering most quality frames almost useless except for the fanatic.
- mid travel suspension forks (with disktabs 80mm) will dry up rendering most quality frames from the late 90s early 00s useless. The generation who made the transition to 120mm will be old and not be able or stupid enough to do jumps and will long for a short travel quality fork. I've have some NOS stockpiles for my own builds future builds. They are already scarce.
- 9 speed will die a natural death. Prices have fallen but are maintained due to people squeezing life out of their old set-ups, but they will rise again. I've stocked up on full transmission parts till I'm 70 for 6 bikes
- 25.4mm stems and bars I'm always stocking up now while they are considered obsolete.
- square taper.....I've seriously stockpiled on NOS UN72. Actually, I've purchased every NOS (in the right dimensions) from the bay for the last 3 years.
- v-brakes. Parellel link type from Shimano will be sought after. Look at the bids already.
- Front mech with no plastic shims in the proper band diameter - TP and BP. I've stockpiled here since they are already a thing of the past.
- Ceramic quality rims and brake pads will be sought after for the weight weenies riders of tomorrow. Considered obsolete today.
- all Carbon will rot in hell. Too dubious for riders and will be confined to the garage queen or adventurous old age pootlers unless it it NOS.

 

[IWish]

I have a feeling you're right about the Retro of the current not being saught after in the next but I'm 18 and I love Retro bikes.

Ano will just keep going up if it doesn't get sun bleached I think.

I think Ti will keep going up in value too. If NOS. Kleins are going to lose there value unless NOS too so that's something to save.

If somethings used unless it's stupidly rare I'd say just use it and enjoy it. I have a NOS GT Thermoplastic bar that I can find NO info on and I'm just going to ride it when I find the perfect rest of the bike.