The No Longer Avoidable Independence Debate Thread

:twisted:

Just wondering if anyone has seen evidence proving we'll be better off if we go it alone..........

I haven't but am open to persuasion, I just need hard facts on which to base an important decision. Even a few would be nice. Wee ones would do in the absence of biggies. Biggies certainly would be better however.

Anyone? No? Hmmmm.........

:twisted:

no firm evidence either way just a lot of smoke and mirrors so far.

having said that, i work in the construction industry and our work is pretty much split between London/Aberdeen, the central belt of scotland is still very quiet. We also provide Facilities Maintenance support to Standard Life and Prudential nationally.

All the stuff i hear from these guys is that independence causes insecurity and unknowns which in turn affects investments.

I'm pretty much in the NO camp based on a business perspective.

There's plenty of bollocks to read if you listen to the media. They are serving their own and the establishments interests.

I think it's a case of asking a few questions.

Why has Norway got a fund from its oil of approx a million per person (about 1% of the world's stocks) and Scotland has the dubious distinction of being a first world country where the Red Cross is distributing food parcels?

Why has Scotland's population had to leave the country to survive? Our population is almost the same as it was 100 years ago and England's has grown about 40%.

I don't see any evil plot in all that, but I do think that local control over our government would mean that Scotland would be better served with self-determination. At the moment Westminster has to give priority to the more populous SE of England - that's democracy, and from the sound of it the northern regions of England have much the same problems.

The numbers are being spun on both sides but you just have to look at other small independent countries to see that it is totally viable to run a country of our size and still have growth.

I completely understand your thinking Keith but try to think longer term, which can be daunting. I'm treating this as a vote for my kids, I think there will be at least 5 years of settling to if it goes ahead.

One thing I think people need to remember is voting for independence doesn't mean voting for the SNP, if you don't agree with their policies you can still vote them out once independence has been achieved.

I'm in the yes camp, I think it is a great but scary opportunity. I have no bad feelings towards the English, I love the place, but I do feel it is wrong to be governed and have policy decided by people predominantly raised in a city with a larger population than the whole of our country.

I'm a yes but not on nationalistic reasons. I am interested in politics and currently its all completely stale. Independence would shake things up in the whole UK not just Scotland. SE England centric government makes no sense plus I personally dont believe our first past the post democracy as it currently stands is in any real sense democratic. More a five yearly elected dictatorship currently controlled by the right wing. We need change and West Minster isn't going to head a change that damages their current control.

Given this is is a political debate, led by politicians, it should be obvious to everyone that any argument for or against independence will be tinged with bias.

That said, I work in the defence industry on the Clyde, so am particularly interested in defence plans in an independent Scotland. All I have seen to date are extremely vague plans to spend £2bn per annum on the sector, which although it sounds a lot (and it is), has to cover all aspects of defence such as salaries, support, overheads, cyber defence (the most prominent line of defence in a modern world - especially in a country that is going to place the financial services industry at its core), which doesn't leave much for major equipment procurement. Independent procurement will have to target cheaper foreign sourcing, and combined with the loss of MoD contracts, my industry will inevitably be negatively impacted. Anything that jeopardises my ability to put food on my child's plate is met by me with a very raised eyebrow. Understandably.

The above is a pretty defining point for me for obvious reasons, but the rest of the debate I'm still a bit undecided on. There is absolutely no doubt that there are some good arguments for independence, but some others that for me need answering.

Overreliance on oil? Oil contributes around 1-2% to GDP as part of UK, but by some estimates will contribute 10-15% of independent GDP - the economic equivalent of putting all your eggs in one basket? Which is fine as long as the oil never runs out. Ever.
I'm also not convinced about the latest comparisons with Norway (previously it was Ireland and Iceland we were to model ourselves on - don't think I need to say any more about that!). Norway doesn't use any of its oil revenue to support the rest of its economy, whereas Scotland would need to. Even directing oil revenue solely at pensions, it took Norway over 20 years to get their oil fund into the black. Logic dictates it will be far far longer for Scotland to do the same. Big question mark for me.

EU? How long before we are allowed to join the EU and what impact will not being in the single market have on our economy (given the significance of EU export market on GDP today)? Even if/when we do join, would an independent Scotland have as much clout in Brussels as we would as part of the UK?

GBP or Euro? if GBP, all fiscal control remains at Westminster but this time Scottish interests in mind; if Euro, see my previous question. Maybe we should reintroduce the groat!

Border controls with rUK? Any EU membership will likely come with the condition of joining Schengen, and therefore being forced to leave the UK Common Travel Area.

Most importantly, when people on Retrobike sell stuff "posted to UK", would we have to pay increased rates / import duties?!

I'm not hugely political, but for such a massive and defining point in our history I can't believe how woolly the whole argument still is. Regardless of whether September is a Yes or No, there is going to be huge change here a result though.

Not sure there will be a huge change if there is a 'No' vote. There wont be another referendum for at least another 20-30 years minimum and consequently West Minster could errode what independent Scottish establishments and powers it currently has. The belief that Devo Max would be tabled if Independence was rejected is just pie in the sky. Its entirely possible that a properly United Kingdom could result where our legal system, parliament, education system etc could be replaced with a UK and to be sceptical English standard. Sure we would share in any UK prosperity but might we be only left with the shortbread tin tartan identity. Scotland is a country within a Union, not a county within England !

Glass half empty Velo!

The reason I said I thought things would change is that the Scotland Act 2012 is already set to come into effect next year increasing Scottish fiscal control from 2015, and increasing powers yet again in 2016. Added to that, all three "main" WM parties have already said they would be committing to increased devolved powers to Holyrood in their next General Election manifestos. Couple those the wake up call Westminster has undoubtedly had in the last couple of years, and the threat of a re-vote in 15 years (by Nicola Sturgeon herself) and I think there will be a sea change in the way Scotland is governed and viewed within the UK. All that suggests the exact opposite to the belief that WM would work to "erode" Scottish devolved/independent establishments.

OK thanks for the info but still voting Yes though I really seriously expect the majority to vote no. In conversation with those around me I feel in the minority but time will tell. WM could still shoot itself in the foot before September.

I would be very wary of relying on a UK defence industry for my job. The UK is broke, aircraft carriers with no planes, etc, etc. The downward spiral is obvious.

At least if Scotland is independent there will the formation of a navy suited to our needs and with the ships and boats in our waters. They will have to be built somewhere. It would be most unlikely that these would come from anywhere but the Clyde.

That's one of the beauties of independence - stuff like that gets decided for local priorities.

Of course, it's all a moot point at this stage seeing as Cameron is seeking advice from that bastion of democracy, Russia, on how to prevent dissident states seceding seeing as they have recent experience.

We're sort of expecting Russian tanks on our streets come September. Not sure whether that will happen before or after our promised bombing though...