Depreciation rate calculators are way off?

[rochester21]

I just had a look at a "bike depreciation calculator" on livestrong.com and come to the conclusion that vintage bikes are way overpriced(or are they?).

Basically what these online calculators say is that a minty top end bike from 20/30/40 years ago isn`t worth more than a couple hundred pounds today, yet a restored 1970s Colnago(just an example, mtb didn`t exist back then) sells for 1000-2000 pounds on ebay and other places. I know Colnago is a overpriced brand, but i`m pretty sure a vintage model(mtb, road, tandem, etc) in good shape is worth more than a bag of peanuts.

Obviously, the selling price also depends on the actual condition of the bike and where you sell it, something these depreciation-calculating tools don`t take into account.

Don`t get me wrong, i`d love to be able to buy old race bikes for the price of a take-out, but it`s just not happening. My way of calculating value of a bike is this: I calculate what the bike parts sold individually would amount to(groupset, wheels, frame), and if the amount is the same or lower than what the seller wants, then the bike is worth buying.

It`s usually easier to verify the price of individual bits than to check prices on the exact same bike sold somewhere else.

Any thoughts ?

 

[mk one]

Its the old saying of its worth as much as someone will pay, regardless of what someone else thinks its worth.

you can say a bike is worth x amount but if no one buys it then it is only worth that to you.

there has to be a market, that determins the value.

 

[Captain Stupido]

No idea about the "bike depreciation calculator"...

...but the market for all old stuff is crazy really. It comes down to fashion more than anything.

It's like classic cars. When cars are 15-20 years old they are seen as old bangers and worth £500. 5-10 years later and some of those old bangers will have become massively sought after and be worth ten times that or more. Look at BMW E30s and MK2 Ford Escorts...

Bikes are the same. In the 90s I was riding a 50s Raleigh Clubman and various other racing bicycles. At the time road bikes were cheap and unfashionable. I couldn't afford a mountain bike, even a mid range one...

I continued riding road bikes until about 15 years ago when they started becoming fashionable and I had a lovely Italian bike stolen...

Now I buy 90s MTBs at a fraction of what they would have cost new. Being relatively complex, over-engineered, and at the cutting edge of technology, they were more expensive than road bikes BITD.

Whether 90s MTBs will become as fashionable (and worth stealing) as Italian road bikes though remains to be seen. I hope not. Then I'll have to move on to the next thing... early high end e-bikes maybe? Actually when those are cheap I'll be quite happy.

 

[rochester21]

This is it:
https://www.livestrong.com/article/1170 ... d-bicycle/

Actually, this is true. There is a fashion trend in the bike world, much like anywhere else. As much as I enjoy showing off my unrestored vintage bikes, i never think of them as fashion accessories. But some people might(hipsters anyone?).

 

[Gruff]

Re:

Just take a look at the Retro/oldschool BMX prices, they are HUGE!
It makes me realise how much value Retro MTB's are.

 

[mattr]

That's got absolutely nothing to do with retro. Just used.

 

[T'boo Ted]

Its the way with everything, there is a difference between stuff that is just old and 2nd hand and stuff that is actually valuable (due to rarity/sort after/cool factor).
I mean there isn't that much different between a zaskar and an arrowhead frame (not really in the scheme of things), but one is worth f-all and the other is very sort after (and they made zillions of zaskars, so they are not rare).
Similar with cars, here, 10 years ago you could get a mint, low milage 99/00 subaru wrx for under $10k (local money), now they are $15+ for an absolute 'dogs breath knackered 94. but a regular non wrx impreza, mint 99 is worth $5., because nobody cares about those.
A mates brother just sold a Mazda RX3 for $65,000, sixty five THOUSAND DOLLARS! 10 years ago it was worth like $650. All because some guy really really wanted one. But thats how it works, you want something from your youth and are willing to pay for it.

 

[legrandefromage]

Arrowhead frames are cheap 7000 series aluminium that can be slung together in a far east factory and knocked out for peanuts.

Early Zaskar frames were genuinely hand built out of 6000 series aluminium which requires actual work to make it into a usable frame.

Plus the ride is completely different between the two types of aluminium.

Anyway, I've just looked in my Walkman box and done some pricing based on current sales, I can pay for next years summer holiday if they sell.

 

[T'boo Ted]

Arrowhead frames are cheap 7000 series aluminium that can be slung together in a far east factory and knocked out for peanuts.

Early Zaskar frames were genuinely hand built out of 6000 series aluminium which requires actual work to make it into a usable frame.

Plus the ride is completely different between the two types of aluminium.

Anyway, I've just looked in my Walkman box and done some pricing based on current sales, I can pay for next years summer holiday if they sell.

yes, yes, yes, to US there's a huge amount of difference, but to the average punter, they are the same thing but one cost $$$ the other is $. In the grand scheme of things they are both just aluminium frames that loads were made, same fit and geo pretty much.
I guess what i'm trying to say is that a depreciation calculator would look at both bikes and price them up with similar low % of retail prices, but a zaskar will actually be much more, due to all the things you mentioned, that the calculator wont taker into consideration.

 

[TOMAS]

Arrowhead frames are cheap 7000 series aluminium that can be slung together in a far east factory and knocked out for peanuts.

Early Zaskar frames were genuinely hand built out of 6000 series aluminium which requires actual work to make it into a usable frame.

Plus the ride is completely different between the two types of aluminium.

Anyway, I've just looked in my Walkman box and done some pricing based on current sales, I can pay for next years summer holiday if they sell.

If you find somewhere that sells replacement rubber band drive belts for all my old Walkmans, I too can also join you for a summer vacation haha! At present they chew up cassettes as they slip/ are stretched