Can Wiggins win the Tour? Yes.
Will Wiggins win the Tour? Probably not (but I hope that I'm wrong).
Why don't I have more faith, particularly with recent stage race wins? I'm not sure the week or so races compare to the relentless grind of a three week Grand Tour. I remember Wiggins suffering in the mountains in the Tour in 2009 (when he was an unmarked surprise package) and last years Vuelta (admittedly off the back of a broken collarbone) and he could lose minutes in just one bad day. That said, he'll likely take minutes out of the climbers in the time trials but more of an allrounder (Evans?) may be able to limit losses in the latter and gain more uphill.
Regardless, it promises to be one of the most open in years and if it's half as good as last year we'll be in for something special.
Will Wiggins win the Tour? Probably not (but I hope that I'm wrong).
Why don't I have more faith, particularly with recent stage race wins? I'm not sure the week or so races compare to the relentless grind of a three week Grand Tour. I remember Wiggins suffering in the mountains in the Tour in 2009 (when he was an unmarked surprise package) and last years Vuelta (admittedly off the back of a broken collarbone) and he could lose minutes in just one bad day. That said, he'll likely take minutes out of the climbers in the time trials but more of an allrounder (Evans?) may be able to limit losses in the latter and gain more uphill.
Regardless, it promises to be one of the most open in years and if it's half as good as last year we'll be in for something special.