No. I think that the high level of consumer debt and worries about the housing market will see a slow down in the retail sector, but on the whole the economy isn't in too bad shape. It's not all roses, but its not gone to shit yet.
A key indicator of how well we're doing, manufacturing output, has actually risen for four months on the trot, and is at a higher level than this time last year. Since mid 2005 in fact, the overall trend has been an increase in output. There is increased pessimism though due to the strong pound hitting exporters hard and also fuel prices being at an all time high are cutting into businesses bottom line.
New car sales, it was reported this week, have risen by nearly 5%, surely a sign of confidence by both normal consumers and businesses who wouldn't be replacing company cars if there wasn't the money around or pretty good forecasts.
House prices continue to rise as well, albeit at a much reduced rate, just 1%.
I'm not sure that we're going to see a full blown recession, more a tightening of belts.
I do think though, that with petrol now at an average of £1 per litre, now is a great time to own a bike shop
