You have spent too much time thinking about this
Alternatively maybe I dont think about it enough
There's 2 ways to see it indeed.
I may be wasting my time preparing for stuff that may never happen. Then again being prepared for the worst does give you peace of mind.
And if the worst should happen, well ... good luck.
Things between the US and Russia have been tense for more than a year now, and their opposing views about Syria aren't helping. Lots of tribal wars going on in Africa.
The entire middle east is a huge keg of dynamite with a smoldering fuse. Israel vs Palestina, North vs South Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan, India vs Pakistan, Iran vs the West, this religion vs that religion ... how long do you want me to go on?
Even the internet is turning into a war zone where government hackers try to infiltrate other countries' computer systems and freelance hackers run amok. The first one to take down the banking network for a few days can plunge the entire (informatics-dependent) western civilization into chaos.
Then there's the natural disasters, the ever-increasing chance of drug-resistant virus pandemics (thanks to our over-use of antibiotics), zombie apocalypse
Also, let's not forget that almost every country is billions or even trillions in debt and that several banks are only afloat due to government handouts and the promise of money that doesn't actually exist. If the whole financial bubble bursts, we'll basically be back in the stone age because there will be no more jobs, no more products, no more money to buy them anyway, etc etc.
All that makes me quite confident that some form of sh!t will hit the fan at some point.