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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:29 pm 
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That and plastics.

I wouldnt worry about it running out any time soon. Most of the estimates are based on "economically viable" extraction which changes both with the pace of technology and the price of oil. A rise in the price of oil tends to bring unviable reserves into the game and vice versa.
The biggest worry - that the Saudi's were sitting on almost empty wells and lying through their teeth about is less worrying now due to all the finds outside the middle east.


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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:47 pm 
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To put this into perspective Total world oil consumption is $3,976,799 Million per annum thats $4 Trillion.

We're currently spending 13 billion (€0.013 trillion) over roughly 10 years (lets say 1.3 billion a year) on the ITER fusion project. Thats 0.3% of world oil consumption value. Even if on aggregate there is 20% of annual consumption being spent on researching alternative sources we still have plenty of opportunities left to divert money into Oil replacement initiatives. For comparison the manhattan project cost the US $26 billion (2 ITER's) in 2013 terms.

It would only take 1 or 2 programs on that equivalent to deliver and we could kiss our oil worries good bye. Fundamentally we live in an energy rich universe.

The biggest risk we are running right now is our dumb ass politicians not moving in time - requiring crash programs in the first place. Rather like the rolling brownouts we are likely to get around 2017 in the UK due to pure political f*ckwittery. Screaming hysterically about peak oil isnt the way to get them to move. Lets try telling them oil consumption is linked to a rise in paedophyllia.

Disclaimer - my maths aint the greatest - happy to restate if wrong. Used brent crude prices of $123 and consumption of 88 million barrels a day.


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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:59 pm 
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Yes, new reserves are being found and new technologies, like fracking, are making more available, but it's still finite and it will run out. The argument isn't really whether it will run out, but when.

http://peakoil.com/geology/heinberg-why ... till-right

The other issue is, if we burn it all, what state is it going to leave the atmosphere and the climate in? How much oil is left becomes something of a secondary issue when millions of people are displaced due to see level rises, 80% of the world population lives on the coast, and vast areas of what was farmland have been turned to desert. Agriculture also requires vast amounts of fresh water and there is also talk of peak water: http://peakwater.org/, so those that think we could at some point replace oil with bio-fuels are living in cloud cuckoo land.


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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 4:47 pm 
retrobike rider
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fracking isn't new, it's just the greens have just found out about it. They've been doing it for years without problem here in Dorset. It was developed in the 80s


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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 8:50 am 
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xerxes wrote:
80% of the world population lives on the coast
They're going to have to move then.

xerxes wrote:
living in cloud cuckoo land.
Code:
most of us just don't care

Some green nugget on the radio yesterday "Britain is the Saudi Arabia of renewables". Aye hen, nae bother.


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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 9:41 am 
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Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 7:27 pm
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They've been doing it for years without problem here in Dorset

Not actually true.

Worst thing for me in those numbers is the constant massive population increase,it'll end in tears.


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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 9:54 am 
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Location: The Cock Inn, Tillett, Herts
If immigration were somehow ended, the UKs natural population trend is in the direction of slight shrinkage. We then wouldn't need so much oil, or to bury more of our countryside under concrete, but the Government sees fossil fuel and homebuilding as the cornerstone of a vibrant economy, so its a vicious cycle within which we've doomed our country one way or another.

My only consolation is that when the oceans rise our village will become a seaside location.


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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 10:09 am 
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careful now wrote:
Not actually true.


Care to back that up?

careful now wrote:
Worst thing for me in those numbers is the constant massive population increase,it'll end in tears.

Since that's basically the underlying cause of both climate change and oil consumption I tend to agree.

What's really getting my goat are the muppets in balcombe at the moment - the modern day equivalent of peasants with torches. Albeit it comfortably middle class peasants wrapped in their Middle Englander ignorant little worlds in a lot of cases.


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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 10:13 am 
Old School Hero

Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 7:27 pm
Posts: 205
http://www.dorsetforyou.com/408929


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 Post subject: Re: scary numbers
PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 10:15 am 
retrobike rider
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Location: Bournemouth
careful now wrote:
They've been doing it for years without problem here in Dorset

Not actually true.


Since my dad was involved with the building and commissioning of Witch Farm in the late 80s, the oil well in Poole Harbour, I think I know they do


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