Can Wiggins win the Tour? Yes.
Will Wiggins win the Tour? Probably not (but I hope that I'm wrong).
Why don't I have more faith, particularly with recent stage race wins? I'm not sure the week or so races compare to the relentless grind of a three week Grand Tour. I remember Wiggins suffering in the mountains in the Tour in 2009 (when he was an unmarked surprise package) and last years Vuelta (admittedly off the back of a broken collarbone) and he could lose minutes in just one bad day. That said, he'll likely take minutes out of the climbers in the time trials but more of an allrounder (Evans?) may be able to limit losses in the latter and gain more uphill.
Regardless, it promises to be one of the most open in years and if it's half as good as last year we'll be in for something special.
Indeed, it's a good, open event and ought to make for exciting viewing. Wiggins is in with a better chance than ever, Evans being the obvious threat. Both Schlecks are distinctly below-par and there seem to be management "issues" in their team set-up which can hardly be good for morale.
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